(Some) Colleges are Lying

Why Are Colleges Lying?

Money. Colleges are going to be really short students in the fall.

Colleges are in a tough spot. We’ve already talked about the dangers of under enrollment--many colleges live paycheck to paycheck. Indicators are off across the board, from deposits to student surveys. I’ve even seen the effects at extremely selective universities: I’ve had several students come off of waitlists (a statistical improbability this late in the year). Some private colleges even are re-opening admissions or extending decision deadlines until late summer or fall.

The numbers are grim: In a pretty big survey, 12 percent of students who had placed a deposit no longer plan to attend a four-year university. Colleges expect some loss, 10-20%, over the summer. But this isn't even June 1st yet, and we’re already over that bottom line number. Furthermore, over 10 percent of current students say that they will not be returning. Some credible predictions say undergraduate enrollments will be down as much as 20 percent. 

The economy is rough, and it looks like it’ll be that way for awhile. That’s tough on colleges: lower levels of state and non-profit funding, lower alumni giving, devalued endowments. Students are beginning to push back on tuition hikes, and demand discounting for online education.

I think the bigger deal, longer term, is a potential change in consumer behavior. If the quarantine continues, we won’t have a nice rubber band snap back to higher ed normality. Americans expect the economy to be bad for a while. In tough times, people look for a direct return on their dollar. Confidence that a college education provides direct financial benefit has been dropping for years and rising costs haven’t helped.

It’s almost a class issue. A college degree is the minimum door price for admission into the professional world, or at least that’s how it has been seen. Our post-secondary education system is broken for a large percentage of Americans. Times of turmoil upend outdated systems. As the GI bill opened the doors to college after WWII, maybe this will be a catalyst in changing our education system to be more practical, affordable, and useful to a broad swath of our population. 

Thanks for the Lecture. What Can I Do?

You’ll likely see colleges move in a herd, similar to what we’ve talked about with test-optional. They’ll wait and wait, and then the dam will burst. If you see mass closures, or mass test optional, it will happen fast.

We saw this with campus closures. Over 800 colleges closed in a three day span in March, all across the country. That’s either a coordinated effort or a panic. I think the same herd mentality will apply for closing in the fall.

In that environment, there are a lot of ways education could work. By my count, there are over a dozen different models for the fall, and, like what we’ve seen so far, it’s not likely schools will reach a consensus. Personally, I like the idea of prerecorded lectures with live seminars in small groups.

We’ll have a better idea of what colleges are doing after the first of June, which is sort-of a watershed date for schools. Right now, don’t trust too much what they’re telling you, they may be overly optimistic because they want to keep your business.

The situation is fluid, and, unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll know any news until it’s not possible to delay it any longer. Feel free to reach out with questions, I’m always happy to answer them.