In Short
This crisis, if nothing else, has revealed how deep the educational inequality runs, how inept public school leaders are at planning and crisis management, and what really drives education policy.
On the college side, we’ve seen the flaw in higher ed’s assumption that it is a de-facto institution. Without a viable alternative for most young people, colleges expect enrollment as though it were due to them, and their financial planning reflects that. The current desperation for quick injections of stimulus cash and more stimulus packages shows higher ed to be a farmer who stored nothing for the winter.
High Schools
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Many high schools are on spring break this week with a promise to “get super serious guys” about alternative education next week. Some states will be relegated to paper packets sent via mail and augmented with optional calls and the like. I don’t think this is much of a solution. I like this far less than a summer program with some thought and resources behind it, and I wonder where students will be, particularly in mathematics and science courses which are cumulative, in the fall.
Do whatever you can to maximize this online learning environment. I wrote about this extensively, here. High schools will be more interested in getting you through rather than caught up. Reach out to teachers who have been involved, maximize what they can give you, and augment on your own. We can help, as can free resources like Khan Academy. From an admissions standpoint, you’ll want to form good relationships with your teachers that you may want letters of recommendation from.
Colleges
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In the last few weeks, I’ve written that every college administrator is thinking about what the first day of classes will look like in August: full classes, half-empty classes, or worse, tumbleweeds. Colleges have begun making discreet preparations for a fall term with no students on campus
In a return to normalcy, under-enrollment will be rampant as consumer (student) behavior begins to change. Over 1 in 6 high school seniors who were planning to attend a four year school are now seriously considering delaying college entry for one year. Combined with closure in the spring, uncertain admissions yields, and on-and-on, you’ve got a big mess.
The global credit rating service Moody’s agrees. For years, these services have tracked large university systems which, from time-to-time, use municipal bonds and other credit instruments for funding. On the 7th, Moody’s issued a negative outlook on all credit-rated universities worldwide. Aside from restricting access to capital, or making it more expensive, many colleges were in pretty poor credit condition to begin with.
I would hesitate to commit to any college rated Baa or lower. While you may think that colleges with poor credit ratings are fly-by-night or online, only larger systems tend to get rated. The poor credit colleges include Georgetown, LSU, Colorado State, Boise State, and the UNC system (though not UNC Chapel Hill). Like bondholders, college students invest in the institution. They’ll be left holding the bag alongside creditors.
Groups of colleges are pushing for delaying the release of financial responsibility scores, which are required by federal law. These scores are fundamentally flawed, but they do give an OK idea of the financial health of an institution. In short, a lot of institutions know they won’t pass their equivalent of a stress test.
This crisis will hasten the inevitable: the death of many institutions. Already it has claimed two, McMurray College and the San Francisco Art Institute. You don’t want to be in that boat.
Research institutions, med schools, and teaching hospitals are looking for an additional 26 billion in funding, a topic that will be picked up on the next stimulus bill.
A large survey of university presidents indicates that most four-year institutions will be implementing widespread pay cuts and some have begun cutting their own salaries, VP level salaries, and pay packages within the athletic departments. It’s likely, though, the hardest hit will be lower-level administrators and university lecturers.
Be cautious. Pillared buildings and a long history are not signs of institutional stability. Do your homework, or feel free to talk to us about any college you’re considering.
It’s not all glum news. Some colleges are stepping up. The City University of New York (CUNY) has obtained thousands of computers to allow students to continue their education without a library. Furthermore, they’re offering 500 dollar grants to affected students. Other colleges are (finally) offering some rebate on housing and meal plans; as I wrote several weeks ago, though, don’t expect this to be widespread. Finally, tuition freezes may become widespread. Ohio Wesleyan announced it won’t be going ahead with a planned increase, and I think other colleges will follow suit as they chase students.
