Coronavirus Admissions Update: The Delay Game

Every May, colleges looking for students put themselves on a database, hoping to round out their freshmen class. Usually, the number of colleges who report openings are around ~400, and the majority of those are colleges with loose admissions policies that accept most applicants. This year, the number is over 700, and NACA (the folks who compile this data) will be releasing an update in June because of an overwhelming response from colleges.

Colleges are desperate, and they don’t have ay of their usual tools. You can’t visit them; they can’t visit you; they can’t offer bigger financial aid packages. Admissions data is looking ugly, particularly in terms of anticipated tuition revenue (more on this soon) and returning students.

For current seniors, continue to be somewhat skeptical of what colleges are telling you. No matter where you’ve chosen to go, especially if it’s a small private college, beware of their financial situation. Over 300 private colleges are at high risk of closing in the next six years. Please don’t hesitate to reach out for information about your particular institution.

For juniors, increased college desperation does not always mean equal easier acceptances. It may, and will, at many schools, but it’s not going to be across the board. A desirable college with a national profile will continue to be—in most cases—be very competitive. The rules of the game may change a bit, the optimal strategy may shift, but there will be more applicants than seats.

That said, COVID is a massive disruptor. If colleges go test-optional en masse, you’ll have a wild year in highly selective admissions. Without test scores, and with only half a year of meaningful junior year grades, colleges are missing their favorite quantitative data.

In that case, a good test score becomes more valuable. Good grades and tough classes in sophomore and the first half of junior year become more valuable. Your essays and letters of recommendations become more valuable. Colleges will still have to choose.

What kind of colleges may be easier to get in?

It’s going to depend on a host of factors, but I think a big driver will be cost of attendance. Current high school juniors won’t be seeing increased scholarship dollars, and they may see even less. This could deter some students from applying to less generous out-of-state and private colleges, which could loosen admissions at pricier options.