Here's How it Will Work
Freshmen entering 2021 and 2022, the UC system will be test-optional. Test-optional does not mean test blind. Students who submit SAT scores, no longer need to submit a writing score. They will still consider any submitted scores.<
I think this is a big deal, and I think the UC system will have a test in place in that time frame. They want one, and this is a perfect opportunity. Frankly, this could also be a very lucrative venture for the system.
I think that the introduction of a new test hurts the ACT and SAT long-term, but it may help them short term. The idea of a new exam from a credible player, and one of their own, may keep colleges who have gone test-optional temporarily from going test-optional permanently.
The largest four-year university system in the country wants testing enough to create their own.
Ultimately, I have a vested interest in testing. I also have a healthy level of disgust with how we do it.
That said, I don't buy the argument that test-free admissions will lead to more equal outcomes. I think the statistical evidence favoring test-optional admissions will disappear with widespread test-optional or blind admissions. I think these numbers are institutionally driven by colleges that are committed to underrepresented students.
I think that better high schools will game the system in other ways, as they already do, and widespread test-optional will amplify the effect. In that environment, admissions may become a referendum on the school and its personnel. All changes bring unintended consequences: widespread test-optional may well enhance the effect of money and activist parenting.
I don't believe there is a perfect test. Students who have better schools, better home lives, and more educated and affluent parents will perform better as a population.