Coronavirus: College & High School Update 3/29

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7ffC17JEiQ[/embedyt]

 

3/28 Update: Shifting Sands or Wobbly Legs?

 

Undergraduate

Last week, I wrote that colleges would over-admit (more than usual) this year. This week, the Wall Street Journal covered the issue. They also concluded that “students…awaiting decisions from colleges across the selectivity spectrum can expect higher acceptance rates….” 

I believe this will also be true for students on the wait list. A national survey found that over 25% of students are considering staying closer to home. The international admissions picture is a mess, and more students are considering taking gap years. It will be a slow-moving and volatile admissions cycle. 

Looking longer-term, a an overwhelming number of colleges will have under-enrollment next year. This is likely to hasten the inevitable closing of many colleges and universities. I advise you to consider the financial health of an institution before committing. 

Updates on Essays, Testing, and High School and College Operations

 

The TOEFL & International Admissions

The ETS has rolled out an at-home version of the GRE and, more importantly, the Test of English as a Foreign Language. The exam will be video proctored, which may throttle the pipeline. International students were facing a canceled TOEFL, travel restrictions, and visa issues (closed consulates mean no visa interviews). This removes one major impediment. It is unknown whether the US state department will work to accommodate students. 

This may or may not hurt domestic students competing for slots in programs with high international enrollment. It is too early to tell. 

 

Test-Optional

We’ve seen a jump in colleges going test-optional for admissions, mostly small colleges and regional universities. Some bigger names like Case Western, Tufts, and Boston University have followed suit. (although the bigger names have only committed to between one and three years as a trial). 

As a rule, schools going test-optional are those that have nothing to lose. On the low end, high acceptance rate colleges (many of which are quite good) go test-optional to bump their application numbers and yield. At the high end, colleges like Wake Forest or the University of Chicago have the resources to be selective and test-optional. Both types of institutions cite the same reason: the democratization of education, and there is some truth to that. But there is also institutional benefit: money at the low-end, image at the high-end. 

The big part of the bell curve, the colleges in the middle, are most dependent on tests: they need them for both practical and ranking reasons.

Colleges in the middle are selective, but they lack the resources to vet every application in committee format. Scores expedite the inclusion/exclusion process. Colleges never admit to this, of course. It is also true that a lackluster test score does not exclude an otherwise excellent applicant. 

Colleges have a playground crush on the ranking system. They kick its shins when their friends are looking but cozy up to it in private. For no good reason, save convenience, ACT & SAT scores are a significant part of rankings. That’s why colleges give big scholarships for high scores, even though test scores are a weak predictor of college success. 

I don’t mind test-optional admissions. In fact, in a perfect world, my job wouldn’t exist. I do think there are flaws in the ethical arguments, practical difficulties, and questions of how “optional” is optional. I’ll discuss the test-optional dilemma further in the coming weeks. 

Above all, planning on test-optional is restricting where you can apply. Hoping that your dream school goes test-optional is a terrible idea. Never hang your future on a single hope, because that hope will become fear. 

 

Transcripts

Many high schools are transitioning to pass/fail or not giving credit at all. For the class of 2020, the latter is the issue, federal financial aid requires a high school diploma. I’m not concerned about this. If the federal government change policy, state legislatures will change graduation requirements. In truth, American education policy abhors disruption and is indifferent to accomplishment. Don’t rock the boat comes in well ahead of education.

 

 

AP & IB Considerations

I cover that on my education update. 

 

 

Graduate School

For the most part, graduate school admissions are complete for this year. As I wrote last week, programs that are mostly or entirely domestic students had little to worry about. Programs with heavy international enrollment are breathing easier with the rollout of the home-based TOEFL. They still face the issues of travel restrictions and visas, but things are looking up. 

Students applying for 2021 may have a different application experience. Many graduate programs have looked at dropping the GRE, and the move makes sense for quite a few programs. It is unlikely that programs requiring quantitative research (most social sciences) or STEM programs will follow suit. The same is true for professional programs, like PA, vet, and PT school. 

There may be a spike in graduate business programs going test-optional, but I don’t expect a broad shift. The GMAT is rolling out an in-home version next month, and business schools have a test-free path, the executive MBA. Business school applicants tend to be older, and programs want to see how your verbal and quantitative skills have held up. Finally, business schools market on prestige and exclusivity. They may worry that test-optional admissions would be bad for their image. 

I doubt the value of the LSAT, but I also doubt it will go away. It is a well-entrenched exam. By some estimates, the LSAT score represents about 80% of the weight in an admissions decision. 

The MCAT, DAT, and PCAT are metrics of a student’s ability to handle the level and scope of the coursework. They are tests of minimum educational competence. You have to have a fundamental knowledge of biology, chemistry, organic chemistry, etc. to succeed in those programs. 

Professional programs have yet another angle for keeping admissions exams. The LSAT, MCAT, DAT, PCAT. and GRE (in some cases) are used in admissions to programs that prepare students for a licensed profession. Students need to be able to pass licensure exams, be they board or bar. Passage and placement rates are important for all programs.